Via http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/statepages/mi10.php

One day to go. Here are the latest projections and poll results in Michigan. Make sure you exercise your right to vote!

 
Michigan  
 
General Information
Election Timeline


  • May 11, 2010 – Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 3, 2010 – Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 – Election dayLatest Polls and Updates

  • Governor
    10/26/10 EPIC/MRA Snyder 55%Bernero 37%
    10/26/10 Glengariff Group Snyder 53%Bernero 35%
    10/18/10 Rossman Group (D) Snyder 50%Bernero 36%
    10/17/10 Rasmussen Reports Snyder 54%Bernero 34%
    10/11/10 Baydoun/Foster Snyder 54%Bernero 33%
    10/07/10 EPIC/MRA Snyder 49%Bernero 29%
    09/20/10 Rasmussen Reports Snyder 51%Bernero 38%
     
    CD-1
    10/28/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Benishek to Mod Benishek
    10/27/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change:  Toss-up to Lean GOP
    10/26/10 RATING CHANGE: Mod Benishek to Weak Benishek
    10/18/10 EPIC/MRA Benishek 42%McDowell 40%
    10/07/10 The Hill/ANGA Benishek 42%McDowell 39%
    10/08/10 Charlie Cook Pundit Change:  Toss-up to Lean GOP
    09/30/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Benishek to Mod Benishek
     
    CD-3
    08/04/10 We Ask America Amash 51%Miles 31%
    05/11/10 Charlie Cook Pundit Change:  Safe GOP to Likely GOP
     
    CD-7
    10/28/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change:  Toss-up to Lean GOP
    10/17/10 EPIC/MRA Schauer 45%Walberg 39%
    10/04/10 Myers Research (D) Schauer 44%Walberg 40%
    09/30/10 The Hill/ANGA Schauer 41%Walberg 41%
    09/22/10 Myers Research (D) Schauer 49%Walberg 45%
    09/20/10 Rossman Group (D) Walberg 42%Schauer 38%
    08/04/10 We Ask America Walberg 45%Schauer 37%
     
    CD-9
    10/17/10 EPIC/MRA Peters 48%Raczowski 43%
    09/18/10 RATING CHANGE: Mod Peters to Weak Peters
    09/17/10 Stuart Rothenberg Pundit Change:  Safe DEM to Likely DEM
    09/15/10 Rossman Group (D) Raczowski 45%Peters 41%
    09/02/10 Charlie Cook Pundit Change:  Likely DEM to Lean DEM
     
    CD-15
    10/19/10 EPIC/MRA Dingell 53%Steele 36%
    10/04/10 Rossman/Team Telcom Steele 44%Dingell 40%
    All Michigan polls and updates
  • Conservative Ranking

    Michigan is the 13th least conservative state, voting 2.08% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Michigan is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.GOP Trend Ranking


    Michigan ranks 38th among the 50 states. 

  •  
    // //
    Senate Race
    No race in 2010
     
    Governor’s Race
    OPEN SEAT:  Two-term Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm is term-limited in 2010.GOP Candidates

  • Rick Snyder  
  • Michael Bouchard – Oakland County Sheriff
  • Mike Cox – Michigan Attorney General
  • Tom George – Michigan State Senator
  • Peter Hoekstra – U.S. Representative from MichiganDEM Candidates
  • Virg Bernero – Mayor of Lansing  
  • Andy Dillon – Michigan State House SpeakerParty nominee – Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race. //Election Projection:  Rick Snyder by 18.2% 

    Polling Data

    Polling Firm    Date Snyder Bernero
       Glengariff Group 10/26 53 35
       EPIC/MRA 10/26 55 37
       Rossman Group (D) 10/18 50 36
       Rasmussen Reports 10/17 54 34
       Baydoun/Foster 10/11 54 33

     

    Projection Datapositive numbers favor incumbent party

    Index    Raw value Weight Factor
      Head-to-head Polls -18.2 100% -18.2

    Projection History

    Date    Projection Rating
      August 13, 2010 Snyder +15.5 Solid GOP Gain
      August 4, 2010 Snyder +14.3 Strong GOP Gain
      Preliminary —– Weak GOP Gain

     

  •  
    Competitive House Races
    District 1 (map)


    OPEN SEAT:  Democratic incumbent Bart Stupak is not seeking a tenth term in 2010.GOP Candidates

  • Daniel Benishek  
  • Jason Allen
  • Patrick Donlon
  • Linda Goldthorpe
  • Don Hooper
  • Tom StillingsDEM Candidates
  • Gary McDowell – Michigan State Representative  Party nominee – Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race. //Election Projection:  Daniel Benishek by 5.3% 

    Pundit Predictions

    Pundit    Date Prediction
      Stuart Rothenberg 07/22 Benishek by 2 (Tilts GOP)
      Charlie Cook 10/08 Benishek by 4 (Leans GOP)
      Larry Sabato 09/30 Benishek by 4 (Leans GOP)
      Congressional Quarterly 10/27 Benishek by 4 (Leans GOP)

     

    Polling Datapartisan poll data reflect a two-point adjustment

    Polling Firm    Date Benishek McDowell
       EPIC/MRA 10/18 42 40
       Penn Schoen Berland 10/07 42 39

     

    Projection Datapositive numbers favor incumbent party

    Index    Raw value Weight Factor
      Pundit predictions -3.5 50% -1.7
      Head-to-head polls -2.5 50% -1.2

     

    Composite Generic Difference Offset Adjustment
    10/29/10 (updated weekly) -7.3 -2 -2.3

    Projection History

    Date    Projection Rating
      October 28, 2010 Benishek +5.5 Mod GOP Gain
      October 26, 2010 Benishek +4.7 Weak GOP Gain
      September 30, 2010 Benishek +7.1 Mod GOP Gain
      September 27, 2010 Benishek +4.4 Weak GOP Gain
      August 27, 2010 Benishek +6.2 Mod GOP Gain
      August 3, 2010 Benishek +1.9 Weak GOP Gain
      Preliminary —– Weak GOP Gain

     

  •  
    District 7 (map)


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Mark Schauer seeks a second term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.GOP Candidates

  • Tim Wahlberg – Former U.S. Representative from Michigan  
  • Marvin Carlson
  • Brian RooneyDEM Candidates
  • Mark Schuaer – Incumbent  Party nominee – Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race. //Election Projection:  Tim Wahlberg by 1.3% 

    Pundit Predictions

    Pundit    Date Prediction
      Stuart Rothenberg 01/25 Toss-up
      Charlie Cook 01/25 Toss-up
      Larry Sabato 10/28 Wahlberg by 4 (Leans GOP)
      Congressional Quarterly 02/19 Toss-up

     

    Polling Datapartisan poll data reflect a two-point adjustment

    Polling Firm    Date Wahlberg Schuaer
       EPIC/MRA 10/17 39 45
       Myers Research (D) 10/03 42 42

     

    Projection Datapositive numbers favor incumbent party

    Index    Raw value Weight Factor
      Pundit predictions -1 50% -0.5
      Head-to-head polls 3 50% 1.5

     

    Composite Generic Difference Offset Adjustment
    10/29/10 (updated weekly) -7.3 -2 -2.3

    Projection History

    Date    Projection Rating
      August 3, 2010 Walberg +2.9 Weak GOP Gain
      Preliminary —– Weak GOP Gain

     

  •  
    District 9 (map)


    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Gary Peters seeks a second term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.GOP Candidates

  • Andrew Raczkowski – 2002 and 2008 Senate Nominee  
  • Paul Welday
  • Anna Janek
  • Gene GoodmanDEM Candidates
  • Gary Peters – Incumbent  Party nominee – Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race. //Election Projection:  Gary Peters by 2.7% 

    Pundit Predictions

    Pundit    Date Prediction
      Stuart Rothenberg 10/28 Peters by 4 (Leans DEM)
      Charlie Cook 09/02 Peters by 4 (Leans DEM)
      Larry Sabato 02/18 Peters by 4 (Leans DEM)
      Congressional Quarterly 01/01 Peters by 8 (Likely DEM)

     

    Polling Datapartisan poll data reflect a two-point adjustment

    Polling Firm    Date Raczkowski Peters
       EPIC/MRA 10/17 43 48

     

    Projection Datapositive numbers favor incumbent party

    Index    Raw value Weight Factor
      Pundit predictions 5 75% 3.8
      Head-to-head polls 5 25% 1.3

     

    Composite Generic Difference Offset Adjustment
    10/29/10 (updated weekly) -7.3 -2 -2.3

    Projection History

    Date    Projection Rating
      September 18, 2010 Peters +4.6 Weak DEM Hold
      August 3, 2010 Peters +6.6 Mod DEM Hold
      Preliminary —– Mod DEM Hold

     

  •  
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first

  • District 2:  OPEN:  Bill Huizenga (R) vs. Fred Johnson (D)
  • District 3:  OPEN:  Justin Amash (R) vs. Pat Miles (D)possibly competitive
  • District 4:  Dave Lee Camp (R)-inc vs. Jerry Campbell (D)
  • District 5:  Dale Kildee (D)-inc vs. John Kupiec (R)
  • District 6:  Fred Upton (R)-inc vs. Don Cooney (D)
  • District 8:  Michael Rogers (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 10:  Candice Miller (R)-inc vs. Henry Yanez (D)
  • District 11:  Thad McCotter (R)-inc vs. Natalie Mosher (D)
  • District 12:  Sandy Levin (D)-inc vs. Donald Volaric (R)
  • District 13:  OPEN:  Hansen Clarke (D) vs. John Hauler (R)
  • District 14:  John Conyers Jr. (D)-inc vs. Don Ukrainec (R)
  • District 15:  John Dingell (D)-inc vs. Rob Steele (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 7 GOP, 8 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor – tied to Governor DEM
      State Senate – GOP control 21 GOP, 17 DEM
      State House – DEM control 43 GOP, 67 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jennifer Granholm (D) – 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  John Cherry (D) – 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Carl Levin (D) – 6th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Debbie Stabenow (D) – 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Bart Stupak (D) – 9th term
  • House District 2:  Peter Hoekstra (R) – 9th term (running for Governor)
  • House District 3:  Vernon Ehlers (R) – 9th term (retiring)
  • House District 4:  Dave Lee Camp (R) – 10th term
  • House District 5:  Dale Kildee (D) – 17th term
  • House District 6:  Fred Upton (R) – 12th term
  • House District 7:  Mark Schauer (D) – 1st term
  • House District 8:  Michael Rogers (R) – 5th term
  • House District 9:  Gary Peters (D) – 1st term
  • House District 10:  Candice Miller (R) – 4th term
  • House District 11:  Thad McCotter (R) – 4th term
  • House District 12:  Sandy Levin (D) – 14th term
  • House District 13:  Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) – 7th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 14:  John Conyers Jr. (D) – 23rd term (might retire)
  • House District 15:  John Dingell (D) – 28th term (might retire)Historical Partisan Snapshot

  •  
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008


    President Weak D Weak D Strong D


    Senate
    Class 1 Weak D Solid D
    Class 2 Solid D Solid D


    Governor Weak D Strong D


    House 7 GOP
    9 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    7 GOP
    8 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D
    CD-8 Weak R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Mod R
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D NA NA NA NA


    BOLD – party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to less than 10%
  • “Strong” – 10% to 15%
  • “Solid” – greater than 15%
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