Oh my gosh, not some more UNEXPECTED bad news! What a tiresome routine. How can this be? Didn’t we just complete the recovery summer? Didn’t the recession end 17 months ago? Shouldn’t the retailers be hiring like mad for the holidays since consumers are spending money? Isn’t the stock market booming again because corporate profits have been good? Isn’t the nations GDP growth positive? How can this be?
Well, it’s only unexpected if you rely on your news from the mainstream media. The real number of unemployed has been well above 10%. It’s only due to calculation methodology from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that has kept this number artificially suppressed. This is not for pro-Obama reasons either, it’s just flaws in the way they compile and report numbers. It’s always lower than it really is.
I found this statement from John R. Lott, Jr., who is a Fox News contributor.
“The untold story that isn’t being covered is how many Americans have stopped actively looking for work. At this writing, the number of unemployed plus those not in the labor force is at 99.83 million, just below 100 million and 10 million above what it was just two years ago. President Obama seems posed to claim the dubious distinction of breaking through that 100 million barrier.”
That’s stunning. 100 million people in this country who rely on others for their support.
I won’t rehash all the numbers in the unemployment report. You can get that all over the place. We do need to pay attention to the underlying factors to get a feel for what is coming in 2011. For instance, the average workweek remained unchanged from the previous month. This number needs to rise before employers hire more people. It’s not, due to efficiency and productivity. I work with the public myself and interact with hundreds of businesses each month. I see it for myself without needing to see the numbers to back it up. Employers are demanding more from each employee and the corresponding stress continues to rise. It’s taking its toll and this is an untold story. Injuries, sickness and depression are going to rise in this country due to this so I’m sure as time goes on you’ll hear more about it.
Another number to watch is durable goods. Manufacturing is a leading indicator and this number dropped 3.4% in October, down two of the last three months. Retailers should have been expanding their inventories for the holiday season and this report from the Commerce Dept. shows this is not the case. Overall manufacturing across all sectors dropped .9% for the month. That simply doesn’t bode well for the busiest time of the retailers year. The numbers show that much of the growth numbers over the past year was merely restocking of depleted inventories from the recession. It didn’t reflect growth potential. Now that inventories are high and future orders are shrinking, we can expect to see a dilemma. Usually, we would see a period of heavy discounting to clear these inventories and then the orders would naturally increase completing a cycle. However, with unemployment numbers rising right now even during the holiday hiring season, consumer spending should now drop sharply early next year. Not to mention all of the unknowns pertaining to tax hikes and rising health care costs and the expected rise in energy costs.
Obama no longer has the benefit of the census hiring surge to distort the numbers. Nor does he have the benefit of stimulus hiring after this month. Granted, those were government jobs expanding and not private-sector jobs, but he was still able to use it as a positive. I don’t see anything in the way of stopping the “official” reported unemployment rate from rising above 10% next year. Get ready for a rocky ride in 2011.
This video clip is great. It combines a complete idiot with one of the best comedy clips of all time. Enjoy!
So, unemployment benefits give us a return on our “investment”? Unemployment welfare checks are a job creator? She has also said along with Barney Frank that we actually double our money on unemployment benefit checks. Let me get this straight. We have to borrow money to issue unemployment checks because we have no money. That will have to be paid back with interest. The recipients will certainly quickly spend the money out of necessity for staple goods. It won’t be used for investments. It won’t be used to hire people or expand businesses. It won’t be used for anything that will create growth. You can’t go in debt to provide welfare and then simply have the money recirculate around the economy and claim it has doubled your return. Pelosi is an idiot. Frank is an idiot. The voters that just re-elected them are idiots.