The August 2012 employment summary is out and the spin has begun. Read the report here. It’s hard to comprehend that over 3 years into a recession recovery, we are still seeing over half a million Americans simply give up looking for a job. In one month! It’s difficult to wrap your arms around that. Particularly when you consider that the 581,000 Americans who gave up looking for a job exceeds the entire population of the state of Wyoming! Guess they aren’t part of the democrats big tent.
Just for fun, I thought I would speculate a bit. Total non-farm payroll employment rose 96,000 in August 2012. The average so far in 2012 has been 139,000 per month. There are two more BLS employment summary reports that will be released prior to the November general election. Utilizing the 2012 average, we will add 278,000 non-farm payroll jobs prior to the election. So how many more Americans will need to drop out of the labor force in the next two months in order for Obama to get his facetiously important sub 8% unemployment rate? Assuming the total civilian labor force were to remain the same, we would need just 606,000 Americans to give up on finding a job. The monthly average for the last year has been about 227,000 dropping out each month so we’ll have to step it up a bit to get there.
Oh, my math? I’ve had people write me previously and tell me to show how I came up with the numbers I use so here you go. Just take the civilian labor force of 154,645 million. Assume 278,000 jobs will be added. Have 606,000 drop out leaving a net loss of 328,000 (606,000-278,000=328,000). Take 154,645 and multiply by 7.9% and you get 12,216. The total unemployed for August 2012 was 12,544 million. 12,544 million less the 328,000 leaves 12,216 and a 7.9% unemployment rate.
The difference between 7.9% and 8% should not be understated in the realm of political talking points since the number will be released just 4 days prior to the election. The President just told us last night that we’re all in this together so I have to believe that 606,000 Americans will take one for the team and voluntarily give up working to see this through! There has to be another 606,000 democrats out there willing to feed off the public trough, aren’t there? After all, that’s just slightly more than the population of Washington, D.C. How ironic.