The August 2012 employment summary is out and the spin has begun. Read the report here. It’s hard to comprehend that over 3 years into a recession recovery, we are still seeing over half a million Americans simply give up looking for a job. In one month! It’s difficult to wrap your arms around that. Particularly when you consider that the 581,000 Americans who gave up looking for a job exceeds the entire population of the state of Wyoming! Guess they aren’t part of the democrats big tent.

Just for fun, I thought I would speculate a bit. Total non-farm payroll employment rose 96,000 in August 2012. The average so far in 2012 has been 139,000 per month. There are two more BLS employment summary reports that will be released prior to the November general election. Utilizing the 2012 average, we will add 278,000 non-farm payroll jobs prior to the election. So how many more Americans will need to drop out of the labor force in the next two months in order for Obama to get his facetiously important sub 8% unemployment rate? Assuming the total civilian labor force were to remain the same, we would need just 606,000 Americans to give up on finding a job. The monthly average for the last year has been about 227,000 dropping out each month so we’ll have to step it up a bit to get there.

Oh, my math? I’ve had people write me previously and tell me to show how I came up with the numbers I use so here you go. Just take the civilian labor force of 154,645 million. Assume 278,000 jobs will be added. Have 606,000 drop out leaving a net loss of 328,000 (606,000-278,000=328,000).  Take 154,645 and multiply by 7.9% and you get 12,216. The total unemployed for August 2012 was 12,544 million.  12,544 million less the 328,000 leaves 12,216 and a 7.9% unemployment rate.

The difference between 7.9% and 8% should not be understated in the realm of political talking points since the number will be released just 4 days prior to the election. The President just told us last night that we’re all in this together so I have to believe that 606,000 Americans will take one for the team and voluntarily give up working to see this through! There has to be another 606,000 democrats out there willing to feed off the public trough, aren’t there? After all, that’s just slightly more than the population of Washington, D.C. How ironic.

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4 thoughts on “The entire state of Wyoming just quit looking for work

  1. Well, Slick Willy did say something the other night at the DNC that was true; arithmatic matters. Amd, the Obama numbers and the reported unemployment numbers don’t add up.

    Yesterday I was watching a video clip of Fox News where Bret Humme was interviewing a Democrat Congressman over the sad jobs report. The congressman was making a big deal anout nobody takes into account that we have about 5000 baby boomers retiring every day. I found myself screaming at my computer screen for Brett to set this clown straight. At least 99% percent of the people who retire leave a vaccancy that is filled very quickly. Do, there is littlee or no effect from retitements.

    By the way, not that it matters Nut looking at that BLS table, I think the number of people dropping out was 368,000. The 581,000, I believe, includes young people coming of age to be counted in the potential workforce.

    I was looking at a graph of the workforce participation rate recently. It peaked between the years 2000 and 2001, after which it dipped for a few years. I’m thinking this is when the Dot.Com bubble broke. The rate then leveled off after the Bush tax cuts and then nose dived with our Great Recession.

    With QE 1 and QE 2, we should have seen some serious inflation. We didn’t because those trillions of dollars have been sitting in excess reserve accounts at the Fed and did not enter into the economy. I predict that if Romney is elected and does things to spark economic growth, those banks are going to use those excess reserves to take advantage of the growing economy and then we will see the delayed inflation and Romney will take the blame. That’s ironic!

    Stay well, my friend.

    Jim

  2. By the way, not that it matters Nut looking at that BLS table, I think the number of people dropping out was 368,000. The 581,000, I believe, includes young people coming of age to be counted in the potential workforce

    The drop in size of the entire civilian labor force is the 368,000 number, which includes young people 16 and older, and the key is it includes both employed and unemployed. You are correct that the not in labor force number includes young people, they must merely meet the requirement of not looking for work. Regardless, the official unemployment rate doesn’t reflect these people as they aren’t considered unemployed. The BLS unemployment number is a joke anyway when you consider that you merely need to work one hour in a month to be considered employed.

    The total number not in the labor force of nearly 89 million is what is astounding to me. No matter why they are in this category, they aren’t paying income tax which ties into my previous post. I think both left and right are going to go full speed with the VAT because our taxpaying labor force isn’t expanding enough. They get the best of both worlds this way. Ever expanding dependency groups for their votes and a VAT that would vastly increase the taxpayer base. Power tripping politician Heaven!

    Keep up the good work my friend.

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